Daily COVID-19 deaths will peak in Virginia on May 6, researchers predict
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| A graph showing predicted COVID-19 deaths in Virginia. [Institute for Health Metricts and Evaluation] |
The number of daily COVID-19 deaths in Virginia will
steadily climb, reaching a peak of 32 deaths on May 6. After that, the number
of daily deaths will gradually decline, reaching 0 on July 6.
steadily climb, reaching a peak of 32 deaths on May 6. After that, the number
of daily deaths will gradually decline, reaching 0 on July 6.
Those projections are from a graph developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington as part
of a forecast on COVID-19 deaths and hospital resources available to meet the
demand in every state and the United States as a whole.
of a forecast on COVID-19 deaths and hospital resources available to meet the
demand in every state and the United States as a whole.
The IHME study, released March 26, says even if people practice
social distancing and take other precautions advised by public health
officials, “the current wave of COVID-19 deaths is likely to persist into July.” If people don’t follow those recommendations, “the trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse.”
The analysis predicts approximately 81,000 Americans will
die from the virus. In Virginia, IHME predicts 1,543 deaths.
die from the virus. In Virginia, IHME predicts 1,543 deaths.
Related story: Fairfax County Health Department reports second COVID-19 death
Across the U.S., IHME says, “the demand for ventilators and
beds in hospital intensive care units will far exceed capacity for COVID-19
patients as early as the second week of April.”
beds in hospital intensive care units will far exceed capacity for COVID-19
patients as early as the second week of April.”
In analyzing the hospital resources needed in Virginia on
the peak date May 17, IHME predicts a shortfall of 183 ICU beds, although the
state will have more than enough regular hospital beds. Virginia will need 276
ventilators.
the peak date May 17, IHME predicts a shortfall of 183 ICU beds, although the
state will have more than enough regular hospital beds. Virginia will need 276
ventilators.
