Model predicts daily coronavirus deaths will peak in Virginia April 22
The
peak day for COVID-19 deaths in Virginia is projected to occur on April 22,
when 59 people will die, according to a model, updated April 7, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
peak day for COVID-19 deaths in Virginia is projected to occur on April 22,
when 59 people will die, according to a model, updated April 7, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
That’s
a big change from an earlier projection by the IHME. An article published in the
Annandale Blog on March 29 reported the peak in daily deaths from coronavirus in Virginia would be 32 deaths from COVID-19 on May 6. (The IHME projections are updated daily).
a big change from an earlier projection by the IHME. An article published in the
Annandale Blog on March 29 reported the peak in daily deaths from coronavirus in Virginia would be 32 deaths from COVID-19 on May 6. (The IHME projections are updated daily).
IHME
also reduced its projection of total deaths in Virginia due to the virus from 1,543, as reported on March 29, to 1,401 by Aug. 4.
For
the U.S. as a whole, IHME projects the peak day for daily deaths would be 3,130
on April 16. It predicts the total number of U.S. deaths would 81,766 by Aug.
4.
the U.S. as a whole, IHME projects the peak day for daily deaths would be 3,130
on April 16. It predicts the total number of U.S. deaths would 81,766 by Aug.
4.
The
IHME models are based on everyone complying with social distancing recommendations.
If that is the case, the first wave of the pandemic would occur in the U.S. by
early July. By that point, the institute estimates 97 percent of the U.S. population will
still be susceptible to COVID-19.
IHME models are based on everyone complying with social distancing recommendations.
If that is the case, the first wave of the pandemic would occur in the U.S. by
early July. By that point, the institute estimates 97 percent of the U.S. population will
still be susceptible to COVID-19.
Maintaining
social distancing will still be necessary to avoid a second wave before a
vaccine becomes available.
social distancing will still be necessary to avoid a second wave before a
vaccine becomes available.
