New COVID-19 cases in Fairfax County are declining

Members of a rapid response team prepare to enter a COVID-19 hotspot, such as an assisted living or skilled nursing facility. [Fairfax County Health Department]

The number of new COVID-19 cases in Fairfax County is declining. There have been fewer than 100 new cases every day for the past week. 

There were just 13 new cases reported on June 16, the lowest number yet. There were 75 new cases on June 15, 51 on June 12, 65 on June 11, 51 on June 10, and 92 on June 9. 

“That’s a substantial decline even in the context of the increased testing being done,” Dr. Benjamin Schwartz, director of immunology in the county’s Health Department, said at a school board work session June 15.  During the peak, in the first week of May, there were about 300 or more new cases a day. 

Whether the reduction in COVID cases continues depends on the effectiveness of the Fairfax County Health Department’s strategy to curb new infections – and whether people continue to follow health guidelines as restrictions are lifted, Schwartz said. 

The Health Department’s strategy is based on scaling up contact tracing and contact investigations and persuading infected people and their contacts to self-quarantine for 14 days. 

A critical challenge is identifying cases, and that is difficult because people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms aren’t getting tested, Schwartz said. In addition, there are people who aren’t getting tested even if they feel sick because they can’t afford to not work.

Also, some people are not complying with the quarantine rules because they need to go to work or live in crowded homes where isolation isn’t possible. 

There has been a total of 13,228 COVID cases and 441 deaths in the Fairfax Health District, as of June 16.

Those numbers, however, significantly underestimate the actual number of cases and deaths, Schwartz said. Because many people are not tested and are not symptomatic, it’s estimated that only about 15 percent of cases are counted. 

The virus is placing a disproportionate burden on the Hispanic population, he said. Hispanics make up 17 percent of the county’s population and 65 percent of the COVID-19 cases. According to Schwartz, this is happening because Hispanics are more likely to have to work, use public transportation or shared rides, and live in crowded households and are less likely to have health insurance and teleworking options. 

There are also lots of unknowns. “We don’t know what proportion of cases are asymptomatic and the rate at which they transmit disease,” Schwartz noted. 

The rate of COVID-19 infection among children is also not known, he said. Children who are infected are more likely to be asymptomatic and are less likely to be tested. At a recent community testing event in Herndon, six people age 18 or under tested positive and none had symptoms.  

Fairfax County has had “several cases” of multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a rare but severe illness affecting children that appears to be a post-infection complication of COVID-19, Schwartz said. MIS-C symptoms includes fever and inflammation affecting major organ systems.