Northam: Virginia could begin easing COVID restrictions May 8 at the earliest
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| Paige Bordwine (right), southwest regional epidemiologist for the Virginia Department of Health, talks about COVID-19 testing at the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute in Roanoke. [Virginia Tech] |
Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam says the restrictions in place to curb the spread of COVID-19 won’t be lifted until certain data thresholds are met.
If the positive trends continue, Northam said at an April 24 briefing, “I would like to see us go into phase one on May 8 but certainly no sooner than that.”
Phase one on the path toward recovery includes the reopening of some businesses with strict rules in place. Social distancing and teleworking will continue, and face coverings will still be recommended in public.
Phase one won’t happen until the percentage of positive tests moves downward over 14 days, the number of hospitalizations decreases over 14 days, there are enough hospital beds and intensive care units, and the supply of personal protective equipment increases.
The daily number of COVID cases in Virginia is still rising but the growth rate is slowing, Northam said. The case count had been doubling every three days. Now it’s taking nine days to double.
As of April 24, there were 11,594 cases in Virginia, including 596 new cases, and 410 deaths, Health Commissioner Norman Oliver reported.
While hospitalization rates remain flat, 1,600 patients with COVID have been treated successfully and discharged.
Related story: Northam extends ban on elective surgery
Northam said getting to phase one calls for “greatly increasing our testing, then tracing the contacts of people who test positive and isolating these individuals.”
Virginia labs are doing about 4,000 tests a day, and the goal is 10,000 a day, which could happen within the next couple of weeks.
Previously the priority for testing focused on healthcare workers and hospitalized people, said Dr. Karen Remley, former health commissioner and co-chair of a state working group on COVID testing. Now testing is being expanded to people at high risk, including those with chronic disease, pregnant women, babies of women with COVID, and the uninsured and underinsured.
Northam convened a working group made up of representatives of large and small businesses across the state to make recommendations on the easing of restrictions. There will be overarching rules for businesses in general, as well as guidance for restaurants and non-essential retail.
“For business to resume, both customers and employees must feel safe,” Northam said.
“We will not lift restrictions the way you turn on a light switch. We will do it responsibly and deliberately,” he said. “Easing too much too soon could jeopardize public health and consumer confidence.”
There are numerous studies showing that the COVID-19 is no more deadly than typical flu outbreaks. An example can be found on Yahoo News: "The number of COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County may be more than 50 times greater than the official count, according to preliminary results from a new study by the University of Southern California."
When considering the data on COVID-19 to determine when to allow things to reopen, it is important to consider all of the data and analysis and not just data and analysis that tends to support continuing the shutdown.
Just because the reported numbers of COVID-19 deaths are increasing in Virginia, that is not necessarily a good reason to continue the shutdown. There are number of factors that could artificially increase the apparent death rate, such as counting people who died of other things who test positive as dying of COVID-19. Moreover, medicare offers a financial incentive to hospitals to increase the number of COVID-19 patients and to put patients on ventilators. There are indications that ventilators increase the chance of death for COVID-19 patients. There is such a thing as ventilator-associated pneumonia. Readers can look it up for themselves.
Hey guys! I found one of those crazy people that thinks shutting down is a bad idea. I've always wanted to meet someone like this. Let me ask you a question, do you eat paint chips for all three meals of the day, or just breakfast?
Since you called me "crazy" I would like to have the opportunity to respond in kind and say that you sound like a well-programmed moron to me.
Let me see if I can summarize the original argument.
1. Medicare pays the medical bills of older Americans.
2. Hospital treatment costs for COVID-19 are obviously significantly less than what Medicare reimburses.
3. Hospitals have been deliberately infecting large numbers of older people with COVID-19 to increase their profits.
4. The COVID-19 medical treatments are actually killing the patients rather than curing them.
Therefore, we should stop treating COVID-19 patients and go about our regular lives. Just because hundred or thousands of Americans (mostly old people) may die is not a good enough reason to inconvenience everyone else.
Brilliant!
Thank you Bob
Bob: The main point of my argument was that there were studies whose conclusion was that COVID-19 was no more deadly than the flu. Anthony Fauci himself wrote that it was possible that COVID-19 was no more deadly than the flu in his New England Journal of Medicine article.
The main reason why apparent COVID-19 deaths have increased in the past few weeks is that the number of tests given has increased. People who die with but not of COVID-19 are counted as dying of COVID-19. The studies I mentioned show that COVID-19 is already widespread in the U.S. population and that it has little effect on most people.
The CDC guidance for COVID-19 on death certificates says that it is sufficient for doctors to just assume that it was the cause of death.
Your absurd suggestion that I was implying that hospitals were deliberately infecting patients tells me that there is no point in trying to have a discussion with you.
"People who die with but not of COVID-19 are counted as dying of COVID-19." Doctor! this man suffered a horrible motorcycle accident and the poor bastard just bought it! Why yes, looks like another COVID death to me, nurse. The CDC told me it was ok to say this.
"The CDC guidance for COVID-19 on death certificates says that it is sufficient for doctors to just assume that it was the cause of death."
I'd like to see where CDC guidance suggest doctors can just "assume" it was COVID to declare that was the cause of death.
Seriously, do you hear yourself when you talk? or does the tin foil hat get in the way?
Well, I vote for you and your family to be the test of your theory.
It is only dangerous to very old and immunocompromised people, and even then it is no more dangerous than the ordinary flu. Most likely, I and my family have already been infected. As I pointed out, studies show that the virus is already widespread. A large fraction of people counted as dying of COVID-19 actually died of something else. Deborah Birx admitted that people who die with but not of COVID-19 are counted as having died of it.
Hey anonymous, I am amazed at how you twist and misrepresent small nuggets of data to support your conspiracy theories.
Deborah Birx didn't "admit" anything. That implies that "they" were trying to hide something. Your bias is showing.
She was explaining (obviously not well enough) that the US properly counts someone admitted to an ICU with Covid-19 and then dies no matter what the final underlying reason as a Covid-19 death. Dr Brix actually explained that these ICU patients didn't die of something else. These people wouldn't have died if they didn't have Covid-19 so this is a proper methodology. Counties that don't use this methodology are actually undercounting Covid-19 deaths.
Everything else in your reply is also widely speculative or false and extremely dangerous. But you are obviously a believer and the truth won't sway you.
Bob: I am not sure what you are referring to. There is ample evidence for what I said about over-counting COVID-19 deaths. What Dr. Brix said is just the icing on the cake. If you want to give a specific reference demonstrating that Dr. Brix walked back her admission about over-counting COVID-19, go ahead. The CDC guidance on death certificates makes it clear that they are not going to second-guess any doctor who assumes that a patient died of COVID-19.
It's not over-counting a COVID death if someone dies of a complication resulting directly from COVID, jfc. No one "dies" from AIDS, you die from complications arising from having the autoimmune disease. This isn't "over-counting."
Wow. This is a cogent argument for getting rid of Medicare. I never would have thought that hospitals and government bureaucrats would team up to make a killing off of a dying. And since you quoted Yahoo News citing a USC study, how come you pulled your punches with the "There are indications . . . " tidbit? I guess I better go find evidence for your conspiracy on my own! Thanks.
Your sarcasm is pretty lame, but you are welcome to try to refute my points about Medicare and the studies using actual evidence and reason.
You first
I'm starting to not know what to think. Read that 80,000 people died in the US during the 2017-18 flu season & there was no quarantine or total economic shut down but I don't want vulnerable elderly people & folks with underlying conditions dying.
Remember to take this all with the grain of salt that is having rigorous testing – and that's a pretty big caveat – but seasonal flu infects 10-40 million people per year to get that burden of ~60 – 80k deaths per year. COVID-19 has killed 53k to date with less than a million infections. Can you imagine how many deaths we'd have if there were 40 million infected folks in the US? It'd be absolutely catastrophic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true
For those arguing about deadliness. Try and explain why death rates in general are way higher today than normal.