Climate report predicts extreme heat
The biggest impacts of climate change in Fairfax County will be extreme heat, heavy precipitation, and inland flooding.
That’s a key finding of the Climate Projections Report issued this month. The report, a component of the Resilient Fairfax Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan, looks at the climate conditions and hazards the county is likely to face by 2050 and 2085.
Here are some of the key findings:
Rising temperatures
- Average annual temperature is projected to increase by as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2085.
- Average seasonal temperatures are projected to increase, and warmer summer temperatures would expand into the late spring and early fall months.
- By 2050, Fairfax County could experience an additional month and a half of days above 90 degrees Fahrenheit per year.
- By 2085, the county could experience up to 22 consecutive days at or above 95 degrees a year.
More rain
- Currently, Fairfax County sees approximately 42 inches of precipitation per year. By 2085, the county is expected to see an additional three to four inches of precipitation per year.
- Thunderstorms are projected to become more more frequent and more intense, amplifying inland flooding.
- Precipitation is projected to increase across all seasons, with a greater amount of rainfall expected during the spring and summer.
- Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are projected to become more intense with stronger winds and heavier precipitation.
- While Fairfax County is not at high risk of drought, when meteorological drought conditions do occur in the future, the droughts could be amplified due to rising temperatures.
- Fairfax County is likely to see a reduction in snow days and an increase in rain days.
Urban heat islands
- The hottest spots in the county are in densely urbanized areas, with land surface temperatures as much as 47 degrees Fahrenheit above land surface temperatures in undeveloped forested areas.
- Urbanized areas of the county experience significantly hotter daytime temperatures compared to less urbanized areas.
- Urban heat islands include Tysons, Annandale, Chantilly, Centreville, Springfield, and Herndon.
- The urban heat island effect is projected to get stronger with climate change.
- Areas within the county with more tree canopy coverage have greater heat mitigation capacity.
The report examined two greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. In one scenario, GHG emissions peak around 2040 then stabilize to lower emissions by 2100 due to climate policies. Under the other scenario, emissions continue to increase rapidly throughout the century.
Under the lower GHG scenario, Fairfax County would experience seven days of temperatures at or above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in 2050 and 12 days above 100 degrees in 2085. Under the higher GHG scenario, there would be an average of 12 days above 100 degrees in 2050 and 34 days in 2085.
There was on average just one day per year at 100 degrees or more over the past 30 years.
“Today’s decisions and actions concerning GHG mitigation may have profound consequences on the long-term outcome of Fairfax County’s future climate,” the report states. “If global society successfully reduces our greenhouse gas emissions, future climate scenarios may be milder. If global society does not take action to reduce our emissions, future climate scenarios may be more extreme.”
“Regardless of which future scenario best aligns with our trajectory,” it continues, “Fairfax County’s governance of assets, systems, and population is likely to be strained if the county is not adequately prepared for these plausible futures.”
18 responses to “Climate report predicts extreme heat”
Leave a reply
Despite more and more dire warnings, most people in Fairfax still don’t care enough to change any of their own behaviors. Most people will continue to mow their precious lawns every week with gas mowers, even though every 2-3 weeks is often enough, and even though electric mowers are now powerful enough for most peoples’ lawns. And many people will continue to hire landscapers who can’t do anything without running at least one gas-powered leaf blower, no matter how unnecessary. And then there are all the completely unnecessary fire pits and fireplaces. Very few people think they have any responsibility for what’s happening to our planet, including the Board of Supervisors who don’t even have the will to enforce existing laws, let alone pass meaningful new ones.
Maybe that’s because if everyone in Fairfax did what you suggest, it wouldn’t make any difference whatsoever. Also, a lot of us have big yards and mature trees. Gas powered tools are a necessity.
Another inflexible and entitled boomer heard from. I own a big yard with huge oaks, poplars, dawn redwoods and bald cypresses, and I get along fine with an electric mower and chainsaw. Gas-powered chainsaws are perhaps necessary for professional tree service companies, but certainly not for homeowners. And while gas-powered mowers are a convenience for professional landscapers, they are completely unnecessary for homeowners.
Roxy’s right – if you don’t change, then who’ll make the difference for the next generation?
With all due respect, my yard is much bigger than yours. If I were to use an electric mower and not a John Deere rider, it would take me 8+ hours to mow my lawn every week. With my current setup it easily takes 3 hours a week. It would take 10+ hours a week to maintain everything without gas powered tools. The volume of leaves I blow and mulch would take weeks instead of days. What you hire a lawn company to do, I do myself. Anyone I hired would use gas powered tools or it would be cost prohibitive for all the labor. So it’s a wash that I own my own tools. And you won’t be taking my chainsaw from me, as I use it 10+ times a year.
Why not consider having less lawn?
Exactly!
If your yard is so big, why do you think you need to mow all of it? Are you using all of that lawn for some activity? If not, then why not let part of it grow naturally. Then it becomes much more of a haven for birds and other wildlife, and you can spend less time and make less pollution “maintaining” it.
What’s more necessary than a future without extreme heat and weather? I use electric tools and it works just fine. I swap out batteries as needed and I can finish my yard. It’s much more convenient than having to get gas and maintain gas-powered tools. I converted my neighbor as well who tried it and said they made a significant investment in electric-battery powered tools and haven’t looked back. Key is to have two batteries so you can swap em out when one dies, and charge the other one. Even is they both polluted the same amount, I’d still go battery. No maintenance is required, quieter, and they last much longer, if not a lifetime (only need to buy new batteries every few years).
lol
based on last shitty summer and this worst winter ever, i seriously doubt we will have a decent summer this year.
Sounds as scientific as anything coming from the revered Fairfax County climatology team…
Yes, it is science: political science!
I hate to see all of the big trees that are being cut down and topped. I get it if there is a problem with the tree but topping makes the tree weaker and much more likely to fall. I had an Ironwood tree that was topped by the power company because it was under the electric lines. It originally had six trunks. Now it’s down to three and I think they will all be gone in a couple of years. The power lines rare all underground NOW.
Trees can help save money on heating and air conditioning.
Why have lawns at all? Use ground cover and save yourself the work. Vinca, while a so-called invasive species, is planted once, spreads modestly, is green all year round, and gets pretty flowers during three seasons. There’s crown vetch and more ground covers, or plant food, flower, fragrance, herb, and/or or medicinal gardens. Add a composter/compost pile if you have the room. You don’t have to mow, reseed, fertilize, rake or aerate: maybe some thinning every couple of years. Less fertilizer saves streams and river water.
To make a difference we need to change how we build: green roofs, permeable pavements, smaller homes, more tree cover, whatever alternative energy makes a difference. Maybe large scale windmills don’t make sense, but smaller ones on office/commercial buildings would work. If a green roof isn’t practical, would a white one be? If solar panels are too much, how about solar hot water heaters? What about composting toilets? Bidets vs. lots of TP? More reuse of “gray” water and rain barrels? More sidewalks, bike lanes, planning that makes it easier to skip using cars? Circulator vans in addition to big buses.
Cleaner electric cars might make a difference in pollution, but where is the electricity coming from? What happens to the batteries and components? Hybrids help though.
Recycling doesn’t seem to be worth the cost in many cases, except maybe for metals, but we need to encourage the “reduce” and “reuse” parts of the phrase. Shop Thrift stores, yard sales and do neighborhood swaps; new clothes use copious amounts of resources, and we can reduce clear cutting forests by refinishing and reusing existing furniture. Take your own bags everywhere, not just the grocery store, take your reusable drink bottle to fast food places and in your car, as well as on walks or to the gym, along with your reusable straws. Refuse extra packaging, cut back on plasticware of all kinds. Bring your own containers for bulk goods (available at Mom’s Organic Markets). Bring your own Tupperware for restaurant leftovers or carry out. Wish we could turn in glass bottles for deposit and reuse like in the old days. I buy soda in cans vs. plastic liters because I think it’s recycled more easily. Pay a little more for recycled goods because if there’s no market, there’s no recycling.
One of the most beneficial things you can do is eat less meat and poultry. MUCH better for the earth, your health (including your waistline—who among us needs growth hormones?), and certainly for the abused animals of agribusiness. Raising animals for food uses enormous amounts of grain, water, etc. And meat packing plants seem to get more inhumane by the day. Buy organic to reduce gratuitous use of antibiotics which creates antibiotic resistant strains. Skip palm oil and avocados (I know 😩) because old growth rainforest and old growth forests are cut down for these as well as grazing land. Cook at home more to avoid fast/er food packaging, much of who’s is non-recyclable.
Every little bit helps if only incrementally. The USS Constitution raised enough money for renovations from school children collecting pennies. Work within your household, talk to your neighbors to get group discounts on improvements and to encourage good environmental decisions (like scrapping lawns), make recommendations to your HOA, communicate with various officials and companies. Shop and eat responsibly. Thank you!
Thank you, Pam, for your very thoughtful comments! I agree with all of them!
Quit driving cars, stop eating meat, get rid of your lawn because grass is evil, and put up a windmill to get your power. Also quit eating food at restaurants as that is wasteful and everyone is too fat. Consult your HOA for further instructions.
Got it.
Anything else?
Seriously, why is everyone building bigger and bigger houses? There’s a single person down the street who lives in a six bedroom house. Just think of all that energy used, and the bills! Plus all the cleaning that has to happen.
I can’t wait for our kids to go off to college; selling this house and moving into a NO-maintenance townhouse or condo. Can’t wait to travel and play pickleball and not spend my weekends mowing and raking. But I’m sure someone will just buy our house and build another gawd-awful mcmansion.
Jealous and passive aggressive much?
Seek help.
After reading these comments I see that a lot people need to go back to the city and live in a shared studio.