County projects a dire budget picture
Fairfax County’s budget forecast for FY 2026 projects a $292.7 million shortfall, due to declining office property values, rising employee compensation, and limited revenue growth.
County Executive Bryan Hill and Fairfax County Public Schools Superintendent Michelle Reid presented the budget outlook to a joint budget policy committee meeting with the Board of Supervisors and School Board on Nov. 26.
The county faces significant financial challenges for the upcoming fiscal year, potentially resulting in major spending cuts. The dark economic picture is also expected to bolster a meals tax proposed by Supervisor Dalia Palchik (Providence), which was approved by the board by a 9-1 vote in May.
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Preliminary estimates call for $33 million in cuts to county programs and services. Agencies submitted reduction options totaling 10 percent of their budgets.
According to the budget document, a 4.78 percent increase in residential property values resulted in a projected 1.8 percent increase in general fund revenue. But that’s not enough to offset rising costs.
While the residential real estate market remained robust in 2024, it’s been a different story for commercial real estate, as office property values declined for the second year in a row. Office buildings with elevators are expected to decline in value by 8.5 to 9.5 percent.
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The budget document projects a $111.7 million increase in funds for collective bargaining agreements, merit pay increases, and cost-of-living adjustments for public safety and other county employees.
The FCPS forecast reflects the first year of costs associated with a recently negotiated collective bargaining agreement, which includes a 7 percent compensation increase for staff. FCPS collective bargaining costs are estimated at $240 million over the amount approved for the current year.
The budget forecast does not call for additional investments in affordable housing, Metro contributions, or program expansions.
FCPS Superintendent Michelle Reid will announce a proposed budget for FY 2026 on Jan. 23. Hill will present the advertised county budget to the Board of Supervisors on Feb. 18.
11 responses to “County projects a dire budget picture”
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How about a truly independent consultant doing an itemized review of the current budget and making recommendations?
No raises to property taxes. With the incoming administration it could wreck households. Cut the giveaway programs and focus on funding schools (teachers, not administrators) and roads. We have to ensure ffx finances are solid, I think the gravy train is ending
This tragic for county residents. Deficit spending is not the answer. Something must be done or Fairfax may become a ghost county and deserted by everyone who can move out leaving only those too old sick or poor to move out.
Everyone needs to tighten their belts and prioritize. Including schools. How much revenue could the county generate by selling off the schools athletic facilities like the football and baseball fields? Sporting facilities are an absolutely atrocious usage of public resources. Sell them off and the people who want a football field to use can rent one, instead of using my tax resources.
(This post isn’t about schools or football fields)
Eliminate all useless DEI, welfare without work etc…bloated public school administrative staff..there budget issue solved.
Eliminate DEI? That’s like 70% of your teachers and 95% of administrators!
7% raises while everyone else takes 10% in cuts? Not student related expenditures. Ridiculous raises straight in the pockets of staff while county services and taxpayers suffer. And that get s buried at the end of your article? At what point does schools no longer get a free pass on any sort of financial accounting? How about this for a better title:
“County predicts $290m shortfall while schools ask for $240m in pay raises”
“At what point [do] schools no longer get a free pass on any sort of financial accounting?” You are making the point for increased teacher pay in your argument, in a way.
The people of Fairfax County have demonstrated for decades they have no appetite for cuts to their precious government programs.
Therefore, the pressing need for more revenue sources to support Fairfax County’s magnificent government employees and programs is blatantly obviously.
Not only must and will Fairfax County’s Supervisors approve a new restaurant/meals tax, they will also approve at least one, and perhaps two, casinos for Fairfax County to compete against the many casinos in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and now other parts of Virginia, which compete for jobs and tax revenue with Fairfax County.
In the face of the staunch opposition of the citizens of Fairfax County to cuts to their terrific cost-effective government programs; and the desire of the incoming Trump-Vance Administration to cut federal employment and to move many of the remaining federal employees out of DC and into flyover country, the people of Fairfax County will need to either: learn to love Casinos; or accept having the highest property taxes in the USA.
Do what we all do when money is tight…STOP SPENDING SO MUCH.
Let’s be honest:
The FC BoS cannot collect the leaves or garbage in a timely manner and you expect them to balance a budget; ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
There is a cost, a huge cost to be a “Welcoming County;”just think of how all our schools have had to be enlarged, teachers and staff added, and still these schools need dozens of trailers. Additionally needed are more lunch and after school programs so their parents can work; while also adding more Police/Emergency Life Safety, HHS, and overall County services to support an ever expanding needier population and a government that cannot live within its means. This my friends is our leadership breaking the backs of taxpayers.
This may sound terrible but if the BoS instituted a surcharge for every third child student and more per family, you would see the schools’ needs lessen and parents paying more attention to birth control practices. I know this sounds un-American and it may not be legal, but it’s not the 1950s anymore, we are a different America.
I haven’t heard a good idea from the BoS that wasn’t either stupid or unrealistic. How hard has the BoS worked to get state and federal funds to help bridge the divide? So they kick the can down the road to residential property owners by increasing our taxes yearly, as if we have a money tree in the backyards of the middle class and those on fixed incomes! Does anyone remember when NYC in the 1970s went bankrupt and President Ford told them to drop dead? That I predict is the future of Fairfax County. The irony of this is that the County is bidding farewell to its long established revenue generating constituents that made this county once a desirable place to live and raise a family. The inner suburbs of FC is following the Newark NJ playbook.
FC used to have a rainy day fund for budget deficits which probably all went down the drain. Every family has to balance a budget, why can’t the BoS achieve that? It’s because they are so bloated w idealism and foolish follies that they have forgotten the true meaning of fiscal responsibility and accountable visionary leadership.