McKay: Trump administration would devastate the local economy
A second Trump presidency could have a devastating effect on the Fairfax County economy, Board of Supervisors Chair Jeffrey McKay warns.
“We’ll be significantly targeted by a number of things he proposed,” including massive cuts to the federal government, McKay said in an interview with Annandale Today.
Federal contractors drive the economy
His biggest concern is the economic impact of a shrinking federal government on the contracting industry – and it’s not just about defense contractors.
According to McKay, 40 percent of all federal contracts awarded in Virginia come to companies in Fairfax County.
Federal contracting space is valued at $38 billion, including $21 billion from non-defense agencies and $17 billion from defense agencies, McKay said. It’s not known how many jobs those funds support.
“The office market in Fairfax County is already struggling,” he said. “Our commercial real estate sector can’t afford to take another hit.”
He vows to “fight back against any attacks on our local economy, on federal agencies, on national security, and contractors.”
A proposed shakeup of the federal workforce would not only affect the county’s tax base but would have a chilling impact on the talent base.
Trump proposes reviving Schedule F, which would strip civil service protections for 50,000 workers, allowing them to be dismissed without cause. “No one should be fired purely for political reasons,” McKay said. “That will imperil professionalism and independent thought.”
Trump also proposed big cuts to federal entitlement programs to pay for tax breaks, most of which will go to corporations and high earners.
Potential cuts in entitlement programs
“Fairfax County has a strong ecosystem with nonprofits and other providers assisting vulnerable people,” McKay said. “We’re better equipped to deal with this than many other parts of the county.”
Nevertheless, “it’s going to be an enormous challenge,” he said. He is most concerned about cuts to federal health and housing programs. Reduced funding for Medicaid would increase demand for the county’s free health clinics, and “cuts in federal housing vouchers could destabilize families and cause other economic challenges.”
“We have a very strong economy here; we also have people with tremendous needs,” he said. “There’s no way the county will be able to accommodate that with a flip of the switch.”
“We don’t have a way to absorb that type of hit if at the same time we’re getting hit by a loss of contracting and office space,” McKay said. “It’s a double-edged sword.”
“All of this will be part of the conversation for the next budget cycle,” he said. However, it’s too soon to predict what that means for the tax rate and potential cuts in services. “We won’t know the revenue situation in the county until early 2025.” The budget for the next year will be adopted next spring.
There’s been some speculation that the county’s need to increase revenue might spur construction of a casino in Tysons.
But McKay said he still opposes a casino, which is expected to come up again in the General Assembly – at least if the legislation doesn’t give the county control over the potential revenue.
Trump’s focus on deregulating technology – including artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency – could lead to a huge growth in data centers. McKay, however, doesn’t think that will have a big impact on Fairfax County.
“We have a very good zoning ordinance to protect communities against the growth of data centers,” he said. “If data centers do pour into the county, we have protections in place.”
Immigrants fill needed jobs
McKay also said the county has protections for undocumented immigrants, which Trump proposes to deport on a massive scale.
“We have a very good trust policy in place. We do not share people’s immigration status with law enforcement,” he said. “Having a policy like that is more important now than ever. We want people to feel comfortable talking to law enforcement.”
He hopes the Trump administration’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants “focuses on those who commit very heinous, dangerous crimes, not on people filling desperately needed jobs.”
Businesses’ biggest challenge is finding employees. There are 100,000 vacant jobs in the DMV.
McKay said, “Immigrants who are here – and not engaged in crimes that put communities at risk – are major contributors to our economic wellbeing.” Undocumented immigrants pay some $700 million in state and local taxes a year.
He believes it’s important to have perspective. “We lived through four years of this administration before; we’re now better prepared to deal with this.”
However, he acknowledged, it will be much harder to fight back now that the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and conservatives have a majority on the Supreme Court.
“We have to assume Congress isn’t crazy enough to destabilize our government,” McKay said. “There are major national security implications that go beyond political parties. I suspect there will be significant pushback from highly experienced people who will realize some of the reckless things the administration is proposing will put the nation at risk.”
When it comes to Fairfax County, “we have to be careful not to overreact. We have to be sophisticated and strong, but we need to pick the right battles,” he said.
“What I hope my constituents keep in mind is that we don’t know what the future holds. We have to take this day by day.”
28 responses to “McKay: Trump administration would devastate the local economy”
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Talk about being paranoid!! Get it over it!
I completely agree. I don’t understand how anyone could vote for trump on character alone, but he will go down as the worst president we’ve had, the worst cabinet we’ve had (RFK jr – he’s already talking crazy about unpasteurizing milk and he will lead HHS, Matt Gaetz), and strip us of our liberties.
Regardless of all the rhetoric, one thing is certain, the size of the federal government will increase under Trump.
Wanna bet? 😂😂
Did he say any of this BEFORE people voted?
Trump has already been President for four years before. Fairfax County did not suffer as they kept raising property taxes to give them lots of money to spend.
As a long time Democrat told me, “Trump won, move on.” Agree that the commercial real estate market in Fairfax is in some serious trouble and that started with how hostile Fairfax county government is towards business and nothing to do with Trump (Look in mirror Fairfax Board of Supervisors to find & fix this first). Even more scary is that the Board of Supervisors prefer to constantly ensure that all of us that own homes pay more for residential real estate tax. The Board of Supervisors needs to change their spending habits and priorities. Reduce both, but that is not what they want to do.
The commercial real estate market is in trouble everywhere. Much of it leftover issues from the S&L crisis and much of that solution was to push the problem down the road and they have accomplished that. But interest rates were the final blow they are having trouble recovering from. Fairfax County isn’t alone on this issue.
Because of the Dillion Rule, the County has to rely on Real Estate Taxes to fund everything.
Schools, Police, Fire, EMS, Parks, and Libraries are combined about 75% of the budget. Schools alone are 51%.
What do you want to cut?
Let the gaslighting begin!
This is great. Maybe my property taxes will decrease and crime will go down. Maybe I’ll feel it’s ok to let my kids work in a shopping center again.
At the very least, I hope my opinion is posted here.
Leftists cannot stand free speech. It’s as simple as that. Leftists are notoriously thin-skinned and cannot handle any sort of environment where their ideas are openly challenged. Leftists are narcissists and cannot handle ridicule. Leftists are wrong about everything and cannot stand to have facts and their own hypocrisies and double standards thrown in their smug faces.
These dreadful people adored Twitter when that fascist Jack Dorsey blacklisted anyone who dared talk back to them and when they were the foo-foo elites with the blue checkmarks. But now that it’s an even playing field, it is intolerable for them.
Ah, yes, crime always goes down when the job market vanishes and wealth vacates. It will be so much safer when no one has jobs and half the houses on the block are abandoned.
But at least your property taxes will go down because you property will be worthless.
I almost forgot, when nobody wants to live here anymore and your property taxes go down proportionally, there goes funding for our schools and police. So safe.
Funding for schools gone? No problem. Funding for police gone? I’ve already factored that in since they’ve been castrated, no problem. My job is safe. I plan to pass my home to my kids. This area will always have a solid job market even if government is decreased substantially.
America will collapse under the exponentially increasing and unsustainable national debt. It’s now time for fiscal responsibility, and the voters have spoken. Instead of whining, you need to recognize the “new normal” Mr. McKay, which is doing less with less. You are just going to have to come to grips with fact the Trump train is about to derail your gravy train.
Seems to me that the 45% pay increase that the Fairfax Govt Board (including McKay) voted FOR THEMSELVES was NOT well founded. “Because I cannot afford my Mortage”? Really? Most people that work in Fairfax county cannot afford to live here yet you increase the average mans taxes, add a food tax……I could go on. Quit crying
Bobs dad. Wait til your property taxes go sky high to cover essential services like schools, police, ens, fire, public health, libraries.
…..Last I checked, we live in Fairfax County….have you not seen your taxes lately? Schools here are already suffering. Have you not noticed this?
My property taxes have gone up far fast than my income. It’s ridiculous. As for services? They’re not good now, so we’re already used to that.
He will get away with it. America made their choice. The next four years will be devastating and we will never recover. We will never have another free election.
God said he will take everything satan meant for evil and turn it around for good. Trump is the devil incarnate. Don’t worry, just pray and believe. God is faithful
Elle your censorship is comical. You allow this comment:
I completely agree. I don’t understand how anyone could vote for trump on character alone, but he will go down as the worst president we’ve had, the worst cabinet we’ve had (RFK jr – he’s already talking crazy about unpasteurizing milk and he will lead HHS, Matt Gaetz), and strip us of our liberties.
But I post about Trump being best president and this area didn’t implode last time he was president you censored. Joke
The area didn’t implode last time, but it will this time. The guardrails have been removed and it’s full speed ahead over the cliff. And yes, your comment about Trump being the best president was a joke.
“The sky is falling!”
-Woke DEI race hustlers
Didn’t you get the message?
The new analogy is “They’re Eating the Dogs!”
So is it the sign of raising property tax again?
“We expect certain agencies to be deleted outright,” “We expect mass reductions in force in areas of the federal government that are bloated. We expect massive cuts among federal contractors and others who are overbilling the federal government.” – Vivek Ramaswamy
Distributing the government across the country is a National Security issue. You should not be able to drop a single nuclear weapon and take out all the upper levels of the government. The digital economy has enabled divestment and disagrigation. We MUST do this. Yes, Fairfax County will be affected but the needs of many (the Country) outweigh the needs of the few or the one (Fairfax County).