Fairfax County needs thousands of new homes

Fairfax County needs 41,000 to 95,000 new homes by 2035 to keep pace with demand and job growth, according to a Housing Needs Assessment presented to the Board of Supervisors in February.

The report also notes a growing affordability gap affecting both renters and homebuyers.

Between 2013 and 2023, 2.13 jobs were added per new home. During that 10-year period, Fairfax County added 43,000 jobs and approved permits for 20,000 new homes. If that trend continues, employers could move out of the county, the report warns.

In another trend, there’s an increasingly critical shortage of rental homes affordable to people earning less than 60 percent of the area median income. The county needs an estimated 13,800 affordable rental homes for that population, the report states. Thousands of additional affordable homes will be needed over the next decade.

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Among other statistics from the Housing Needs Assessment:

• Renters are overwhelmingly cost-burdened. Nearly half (45 percent) of all renter households are spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities.

• The majority of households (52 percent) earning less than $75,000 spent over 50 percent of their income on rent and utilities.

• The homeownership affordability gap is also widening. Homeownership is out of reach for moderate-income households, including young professionals. In 2024, the median home sales price was $770,000. A family of four would need a household income of at least $230,000 to be able to buy a home at that price.  

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• The median income of a family of four who rents is $101,000. That household could only afford a home priced at $365,000 or less. Among homes sold since 2022, less than 20 percent were in that price range.

• Every single-family detached home built in 2025 in Fairfax County sold for more than $1.1 million.

• About half the homebuyers in Fairfax County are putting 20 percent of the purchase price toward their down payment. That means they need savings of well over $100,000 for a down payment alone, not including additional closing costs.

According to the report, “Failing to increase new home production could inhibit economic growth in Fairfax County and cause rents and home prices to continue rising faster than households can afford to pay.”