Federal job cuts will devastate the Fairfax County economy
The economic impact of the federal workforce cuts will be far worse than previously expected.
The ripple effect of a 20 percent reduction in the federal workforce could result in a $20 billion hit on Fairfax County, Stephen Tarditi, director of market intelligence at the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority, told the Board of Supervisors’ Economic Initiatives Committee on April 8.
“This is a far worse situation than anything we’ve ever faced in Virginia before in our lifetimes,” said Board Chair Jeffrey McKay. He is calling for the state government to help offset some of the federal funding cuts implemented by the Trump administration.
Some 80,000 federal workers live in Fairfax County, representing 13 percent of the county’s workforce, Tarditi said. A little over 14,000 of them have been laid off, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That number is an underrepresentation, Tarditi said, as it doesn’t take into account a recent Supreme Court ruling and additional mass layoffs at the departments of Health and Human Services and Veterans Affairs.
Companies that do work for the federal government are also reducing their workforce, he said. Eighty-six contractors based in Fairfax County have had 149 federal contracts canceled, with more expected.
Layoff notices reported by the Virginia Workforce Network’s Rapid Response program include 442 employees at MITRE in McLean. That company had contracts with FEMA, the IRS, the Department of Homeland Security, and other agencies. Leidos laid off 29 employees at its Springfield location.
In addition, the General Services Administration has so far canceled 650 leases across the country. In Fairfax County, the GSA canceled leases for 15,000 square feet in Lorton and 4,500 square feet in Herndon.
Related story: Fired federal workers worry about financial security in a tight job market
In February, the FCEDA engaged Strategic Impact Advisors to develop a model for gauging the impact of the federal cuts on Fairfax County. They looked at three scenarios – workforce reductions of 10, 20, and 30 percent. Their model uses the ratio of 2.48 contractors for every federal employee.
The reductions so far are coming in at about 20 percent, Tarditi said. At that level, the county will lose 56,993 jobs, including 16,350 federal jobs and 24,642 contractor jobs. That would result in a loss of 9 percent of the county’s total workforce.
If the federal workforce is reduced by 30 percent, the county would lose a total of 85,489 jobs.
Taking into account the ripple impact on business closures and the loss of non-federal jobs, he said a 20 percent reduction of the federal workforce will lead to total job losses in Fairfax County of over 82,000, a 13 percent reduction.
The total economic ripple impact of a 20 percent federal workforce reduction on Fairfax County jobs, wages, and output amounts to $20.12 billion, Tarditi said. A 30 percent reduction would result in a $30.28 billion loss.
Fairfax County’s economy also suffered during the Covid pandemic. But then the county got a lot of help from the federal government. “Our ability to recover had to do with a lot of infusion of money and support,” McKay said. “That’s not going to happen this time.”
The Board of Supervisors is asking for additional funds from the state to help people who are losing their jobs. The board is requesting state support for childcare subsidies, housing assistance, emergency housing, utility assistance, moratoriums on utility cutoffs, and assistance for community-based organizations.
“Nonprofits that provide emergency assistance are being inundated with requests already,” McKay said. At the same time a lot of their funding comes from federal employees. Even some corporate donors are holding back due to the uncertainties in the economy.”
“Unless we get state money, there’s no other place where this revenue will come from,” he said. “This is a serious issue and we need a serious response from the state.”
9 responses to “Federal job cuts will devastate the Fairfax County economy”
Leave a Reply to GT Cancel reply
Zero discussion of ensuring the county budget they control doesn’t add to the strain of taxpayers. Disappointing to say the least. Push has come to shove and services need to be cut.
True and true. The board of supervisors will not cut enough because that would harm their special interest groups or limit their pet projects. Once they get the bill and don’t get bailed out by the state, that is when they will raise the property tax rate- and say they are doing it for the kids, schools, anything and everything to keep spending and not governing by making the toughest decisions.
“Methodology” means alot in the model presented, and deeper aspects of methodology rationale for the Contractor-Fed ratio used in the model should also be scrutinized. Example – the Federal probationary employees are likely not staff with contractor supervision responsibilities. In fact, contractor-supported task management/oversight by Federal staff is primarily held at the higher GS levels…levels held by Fed staff not likely within the probationary employee sweep.
Just goes to show you N. Va doesn’t create anything, without federal government its like any other county
The Democrat Party should be labeled a terrorist organization – Annandale Blog – coddling Descano, and fake Sheriff Kincaid…releasing murderers and rapists, school board that thinks boys can become girls…Stupid Fairfax dimwit voters approving lower school standards……Fairfax…just another third-world shithole like D.C. Montgomery County, Alexandria, Baltimore, Detroit…
Thank you for at least admitting what your end game is. In today’s America, policy differences apparently equate to domestic terrorism. I think the county is in great shape – are you going to turn me over to the police?
In their America, they won’t have to. With help from Meta, X/Twitter, Google, and Amazon, your comments will be automatically flagged and forwarded to the Ministry of Love who will then disappear you.
People like Mark will continue to engage in Doublethink and Newspeak, and people like you and I will, despite being mostly caricatures and stereotypes by that point, will still be responsible for all their grievances.
It’s really amazing, go to any small city’s newspaper and you can read about people who’ve been fired as part of these cuts, and they still believe “we need to cut the fraud, waste, and abuse, but my job wasn’t part of that.” They vote themselves out of a job and likely into poverty, and still blame the Dems for everything that’s gone wrong.
There is Mark dropping in with his usual grievances and zero solutions. Must be miserable to be so angry all the time.
Trump and his filth-ridden administration and MAGA congress won’t stop until we are all bankrupt and living in the streets. Vote blue in 2025 and 2026!